• "everything pretty much in terms of how we understand the global system whether it be the security architecture the geopolitical architecture the geoeconomic architecture or the geofinancial architecture is coming apart at the seams" - Michael Every [00:00:00]

• "That's the western disease... It's all about the quick buck financialization and the…

• "The internal divisions in the United States... those internal divisions have been building for the last 5 years, they've been normalizing political violence in the United States." - Robert Pape [00:00:43]

• "I think the United States right now is the greatest threat to global peace because for the past 30 years Pax Americana has been dominant and now…

• "The more government has tried to create services for people and help bring them up the ladder, the more expensive those things get." - David Friedberg [00:00:09]

• "The key measure of a country's success is how many people are transitioning from labor to capital each year." - David Friedberg…

"If Scott Bessent is the only thing holding us back from certain doom, doom is upon us—you might want to start prepping." - Jacob Shapiro [00:00:52]

"The bond market is reacting to really bad vibes... bond investors just hate uncertainty." - Marko Papic [00:07:10]

"On Liberation Day, Howard…

• "the DJI Mavic saved Ukraine this is the game-changing weapon of Ukraine ukraine would have fallen if it wasn't for this thing" - Wounded Ukrainian Veteran [00:00:00]

• "one Javelin I can get 250 to 500 FPVs and at 250 they'll be the big ones with a thermal camera that can each one can carry a tank destroying munition that we can make ourselves in a…

• "in our book we identify nine billionaires plureaucrats if you will whose own statements indicate that Israel is the driving motivation for their engagement in American politics And these nine donors have given now over $1.7 billion in campaign contributions alone" - Eli Clifton [00:00:00]

• "When John and Steve wrote their book they were able to be…

• "Great powers are undone less by their rivals than by their own restlessness and hubris and that prudence rather than gratuitous use of force is the true mark of a durable empire." - Demetri Kofinas [00:01:05]

• "Both of those are based on shallow decontextualized readings of this vast and brilliant work... Graham Allison made a book about the…

Ep 1: Origins of the War In Ukraine

Quotes

"The Iranians are more aware than ever that they're in the driver's seat. They're more aware than ever that President Trump is in deep trouble and that he needs an agreement." - John Mearsheimer [00:00:00]

• "When you have an incident, it's like being in a car wreck at 5 m an hour versus 80 m hour, particularly when they happen in these key what we call choke points." - Sal Mercogliano [00:00:12]

• "Under UNCLOS, you should be able to do it. Now I will note that there's a couple of caveats... Iran is not a signatory to UNCLOS, and by the way, neither…

• "So the most successful companies, the ones right out the gate, are the ones that are taking business models that have been tried and true in the rest of the world and localizing them for Iran." - Jana Torbati [00:01:07]

• "In a normal society all citizens are equal and they benefit the same from the government... but in a mafia state you should imagine…

• "It is good for human beings to know to be aware of hubris—that just because a new technology arrives which gives you the seeming power of God, it doesn't mean that you can achieve what you set out to do." - George Yeo [00:09:07]

• "When the Chinese say that they have no wish to be a global hegemon, it is not a tactical statement; it is because they…

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Regionalization over Deglobalization: Global trade is not dying, but shifting toward internal regional consolidation and security-first supply chains across energy, data, cyber, and critical technology [[00:00:29](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysym7pV23L0&t=00h00m29s)].
• 30 Years of Structural Resilience: Historical crises—from the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis to…

• "Iran is stronger today than it was before the war started... because it controls the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that it can threaten at will virtually any ship." - Robert Pape [00:21:44]

• "We are like on the Titanic and we're about to hit the iceberg... and when the iceberg hits there's not enough lifeboats for everybody." - Robert Pape…

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• Physical vs. Paper Gold Divergence: Record physical gold demand in Asia and eastern central banks is systematically decoupling from Western paper derivative pricing, driven by structural de-dollarization and reserve diversification [00:01:12].
• Central Bank Reserve Accumulation: Non-Western central banks are…

"The strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must... both of those are radically decontextualized. Graham Allison made a book about the so-called Thucydides trap that drew on that first sentence... both of those are based on shallow decontextualized readings of this vast and brilliant work." - Jonathan Kirshner [00:04:52]

"Great powers are not…

• "The transfer of economic supremacy from Britain to the United States wasn't a single dramatic event... It was a slow grinding multigenerational process full of financial maneuvering, industrial brute force, two catastrophic world wars, and some of the most consequential backroom deals ever struck between nations." - Narrator [00:00:36]

• "By the time Britain…

"the way we have liked to look at markets and the world up until now no longer works and that's because we are no longer in the previous architecture" - Michael Every [04:00]

"everything is now about geopolitics and so if we start from that assumption... it can prepare you for some of these wild shocks" - Michael Every…