"He saw that the trend of Chinese history was China was a great power when it was a unified and able to keep foreign adversaries under control and divided; and China collapsed as a great power when neither of those propositions held true." - Kevin Rudd [00:08:31]

"It reminds me of that last scene in Orwell's novel with Winston, where he realizes as he…

"The strong do what they will and the weak suffer what they must... both of those are radically decontextualized. Graham Allison made a book about the so-called Thucydides trap that drew on that first sentence... both of those are based on shallow decontextualized readings of this vast and brilliant work." - Jonathan Kirshner [00:04:52]

"Great powers are not…

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• The Core Thesis: The historical rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has re-emerged as a major geopolitical fault line, driven by differing economic models, long-term oil monetization strategies, and contrasting approaches to regional stability. As Abu Dhabi increasingly asserts its autonomy from Riyadh's traditional hegemony, their divergent…

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• The Core Thesis: Iran's grand strategy and geopolitical conduct are fundamentally driven by a deeply entrenched sense of national insecurity, strategic isolation, and a 250-year history of foreign intervention, rather than religious or millenarian ideology. By misreading the Islamic Republic as an irrational, ideologically driven actor rather than a calculating chess player,…

"the way we have liked to look at markets and the world up until now no longer works and that's because we are no longer in the previous architecture" - Michael Every [04:00]

"everything is now about geopolitics and so if we start from that assumption... it can prepare you for some of these wild shocks" - Michael Every…

"The burden of proof is on those who would assert that what we've been calling the Byzantine Empire is something other than the Roman Empire because all of our sources are very clear about this... it called itself the Roman Empire, its subjects were Roman citizens, they called themselves Romans all the way down through to the end and beyond." - Anthony Kaldellis…

1. Executive Briefing (TL;DR)

• The Core Thesis: The Trump administration’s military conflict with Iran represents a massive foreign policy failure driven by a severe miscalculation of Iranian resilience and leverage over global energy chokepoints. This dynamic is accelerating the fragmentation of the global order into a decentralized, "G-Zero" world where geographic monopolies are weaponized, peak…

• Interviewee: Tucker Carlson, prominent US political commentator and podcaster.
• Interviewer: Sophie (Sky News).
• Context: An hour-long interview recorded shortly after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding following an armed conflict. The conversation details Carlson's break from Donald Trump, the collapse of the MAGA movement, the erosion of Western democracy, and social…

• Host: Ambassador Pankaj Saran, Co-founder of NatStrat, former diplomat.
• Guest: Dr. Samir Saran, President of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), creator of the Raisina Dialogue, and Chair of the Global Future Council at the World Economic Forum.

The Evolution of Indian Think Tanks & Samir Saran's Journey

• Career Transition: Samir Saran spent 14 years in the private sector across diverse…

• Speaker: His Excellency Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Foreign Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia [00:00:00]
• Interviewer/Moderator: Representative from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) [00:00:00]
• Context: Fireside chat hosted by the ECFR in Vienna, marking the…

Note: This interview was recorded on June 17, 2026 in Hong Kong.

• John Mearsheimer [00:00:00]: Respected American political scientist, leading international relations scholar, and pioneer of the theory of offensive realism.

• Yonden Lhatoo [00:01:04]: Host of Talking Post for the South China Morning Post (SCMP),…

• Watch Part I: • # H.R. McMaster: The Greatest Threats to American Security Part 1
• Watch Part II: • # H.R. McMaster: The Pitfalls of American Strategy Part 2

"What is provocative to our adversaries is the perception of weakness." - H.R. McMaster…

• Watch Part I: • H.R. McMaster: The Greatest Threats to Ame...
• Watch Part II: • H.R. McMaster: The Pitfalls of American St...

Quotes

• "We are in a period of significant danger because we had that period of overconfidence that was a setup for those disappointments of the unanticipated length…

This interview on the Tucker Carlson network features Trita Parsi, co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

• The Core Thesis: The recent direct military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has forced a major strategic reset. Both the Trump administration and the Iranian government have found themselves under intense economic and structural pressures, driving them toward a…